Despite the constant fear-mongering of our politicians here in Canada – the 30 day average of new hospital admissions in Ontario for Pneumonia, Influenza-like illness and infection are all well below the historical (2018,2019) average according to the ACES monitoring system. This information comes on the heels of the Science Table (highly touted as Ford as his source for medical info) saying that the Golden Horseshoe needs an “early and hard” lockdown – ironically to cut down the overall length of closures from “months to weeks.”
The ACES monitoring system, (Acute Care Enhanced Surveillance)” is an Ontario-wide system that monitors hospital registration records in real-time to identify potential disease outbreaks or other public health threats. There are 131 hospitals that report to the ACES monitoring system.
What does ACES data say?
The data from the ACES system may surprise you – especially if you believe the hospital system has been routinely overrun from COVID-19. Except for a brief period that occurred from April 10th, 2020 to May 20th, 2020 (introduction of the virus early on) – the number of new hospital admissions has remained almost entirely below the historical average.
The ACES monitoring system offers this piece of information to help in interpreting their systems data:
“The teal line shows the data from 2018 and 2019 (historical) for comparison to the current (2020) data. Lines showing +1 standard deviation (yellow line) and +2 standard deviations (maroon line) for the 2018 and 2019 data are also shown for comparison. If the black line showing the 2020 data rises above the yellow and maroon lines, it is possible that this indicates that community spread of COVID-19 is occurring.“
“There is strong evidence that community spread is occurring if the 2020 black line is consistently over the +2 standard deviation line.” With that being said – we’ve introduced the graphs from the ACES system below.
Last 30 days of hospital admissions in Ontario for pneumonia, influenza like illness and infection
As the system says – if the blackline stays over the yellow and maroon lines for a consistent period of time than the spread of COVID-19 is likely to be occurring. Where is the spread?
Full year review of hospital admissions in Ontario (same symptoms as above)
Again, the only period that sticks out as a clear sign of community spread is from April to May. Almost the rest of the year shows that the black line remains below the yellow and maroon lines and the last 30 days show we are well below even the 2018 and 2019 historical averages for hospital admissions!
The Aces system also bucks the popular opinion that Toronto and other big cities are causing Covid-19 to spread. The system shows that northern Ontario is the area that seems to have the most evidence of increased hospital admission.
Ontario showing above historical average hospitalizations in yellow
Hamilton Niagara Haldimand Brant, Mississauga Halton and Toronto Central Hospitals
Waterloo Wellington new hospital admissions well below historical average
This is my region of Kitchener-Waterloo. We have had our hospital admissions remain below the historical average of 2018 and 2019 since May roughly. How could they even try to advocate for a lockdown in a region like mine?
Share this article far and wide. This system should be common knowledge to all Canadians as it is a good assessment of what is happening on the front-lines in real time – without political manipulation. As politicians threaten more lock downs – we can see that Ontario is well below the historical averages of hospital admissions (past 30 days) as a province despite Covid-19. So what are we doing Premier Ford?
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