Hospitalizations and deaths “dominated” (60-70%) by those who received two doses of COV vaccine – SPI-M modelling

By: Greg Staley

Photo by Steven Cornfield on Unsplash

The Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling referred to as SPI-M by the UK Government released an interesting report recently. The report titled “SPI-M-O: Summary of further modelling of easing restrictions – Roadmap Step 2, 31 March 2021” outlined something interesting – around 60-70% of the most recent hospitalizations and deaths were from individuals who received both of their Covid vaccine doses in the modelling.

The report from SPI-M said that “the resurgence in both hospitalizations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively. This can be attributed to the high levels of uptake in the most at-risk age groups, such that immunization failures account for more serious illness than unvaccinated individuals.

To be clear this is modelling – but why are we predicting that hospitalizations and deaths (60-70%) will be comprised of those that have received both of their vaccine doses?

Although immunization failure isn’t a universal term – this PubMed article details a little about it. It describes vaccination failure as a situation that “may be due to actual vaccine failure or failure to vaccinate appropriately.”

It is something that needs to be seriously looked at. Why are those that are supposedly protected against Covid comprising of 60-70% of the serious outcomes like death and hospitalization in this modelling? Although the modelling shows smaller and smaller waves as vaccination increases – why would it show that double vaccinated individuals would account for 60-70% of deaths and hospitalizations? Wouldn’t you expect that those that aren’t protected against severe outcomes of Covid via vaccination to make up the majority of the death and hospital numbers in the modelling – even if they make up the minority of people?

What is going on? The one thing the Covid vaccine is supposed to do is protect against serious outcomes from the virus – so why are such a high percentage of double vaccinated individuals comprising of the most recent “waves” hospitalization and death data in this modelling?

Headlines like this from USA Today don’t exactly aid the conversation either:


“Take whatever COVID vaccine you can get. All of them stop death and hospitalization.” Then you read a report from SPI-M and realize their modelling says that 60-70% of the individuals who have been hospitalized and have died in the recent data had received both doses of their Covid vaccine. Why predict this?


Lots of questions need to be answered in regards to this modelling. Let’s hope that more people become aware of this information and start demanding some transparency.

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Published by Greg Staley

Greg Staley is a husband, and a father to 3 beautiful girls. He is a concerned citizen who is closely watching his government's actions through critical thinking, and assessment of all qualified and relevant data. He believes in going to the Primary sources of data at all times if possible.