0.8% Covid Fatality Rate in Ontario – putting Covid in context

(Photo by Amin Moshrefi on Unsplash)

After writing a recent article, I stumbled upon something in a Public Health Ontario document – a reference to a study that pegged Ontario’s infection fatality rate (IFR) at an estimated 0.8%.

To be clear, I believe that the Covid fatality rate could be lower than this figure and likely is given that the PCR tests is unreliable and being run at cycle thresholds that pick up dead virus that is not infectious. The purpose of this article is to use the public information provided by the province and provide context. It’s also to highlight that the infection fatality rate is much lower than the case fatality rate that is often cited.

In this article, we are going to dial in on the numbers and put the Covid hysteria into context.

What percentage of deaths occurred in long-term care in Ontario?

The total number of deaths in long-term care in Ontario as of January 19th was 3179. Ontario has had a total of 5479 deaths. This makes long-term care deaths responsible for 58.02% of all Covid deaths in the province.

This means that of the 0.8% of those who died from Covid – over half of that 0.8% were from long-term care facilities alone.

What percentage of deaths occurred in those above the age of 90?

  • Those above the age of 90 (above National life expectancy average) account for roughly 1/3rd of all Covid deaths at 32.7%.

What percentage of deaths occurred in those above the age of 80?

  • 69.07% of all Covid deaths in Ontario have occurred in those above the age of 80.

What percentage of deaths occurred in those above the age of 70?

  • Those above the age of 70 account for 87.33% of all Covid deaths in Ontario.

What percentage of deaths occurred in those aged 60+?

When including the 60-69 age category, 95.7% of Covid deaths occurred in those 60+ years of age. Keep in mind the 0.8% infection fatality rate – with roughly 95.7% of those fatalities coming from those above the age of 60.

In addition, as Furey pointed out in his article, “Of the over 9,500 COVID-involved deaths between March and July, the majority (90%) had at least one other cause, condition or complication reported on the certificate.” 

What percentage of cases come from those under the age of 60?

To date, there have been 247,516 cases (at the time of writing) with 194,361 cases coming from individuals under the age of 60. This means that although those under the age of 60 only account for 4.3% of deaths – they represent the lion’s share of cases at 78.52% of all cases to date.

Why punish the working class and not find ways to protect the vulnerable?

If the Lion’s share of Covid cases are coming from those least at risk of severe consequences of Covid – why are we punishing them in our approach to combatting the virus? Why can’t we protect the most vulnerable and devise a response that is proportionate to the problem? Whatever happened to the 1500 beds Premier Ford was supposed to create?

We must also consider that destroying our economy for marginal benefits in the reduction of deaths and cases (at best) is short sighted. It doesn’t consider the long-term consequences to our nation’s mental health and the well-being of our economy as a whole.

If we allow our economy to suffer to combat covid as our strategy to mitigate cases and deaths – it is likely our healthcare and public services will suffer in the long-term as a result (less tax income from fewer jobs = less money for public services). This short-sightedness could lead to more deaths than those saved from our Government’s draconian handling of Covid.

This problem isn’t only today’s problem – it’s an issue that must have the future health of our nation included in the decision-making process. The health of our nation’s future seems to be an afterthought in the fight against Covid from all levels of Government.

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Published by Greg Staley

Greg Staley is a husband, and a father to 3 beautiful girls. He is a concerned citizen who is closely watching his government's actions through critical thinking, and assessment of all qualified and relevant data. He believes in going to the Primary sources of data at all times if possible.